MO-08 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Smith 97% chance
- Chris Reichard (D)0% past 7 days2%
- Jason Smith (R)+1% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Reichard2%
- Smith97%
Chance over time, past month: Reichard from 2% to 2%; Smith from 96% to 97%.
| Date | Reichard | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Smith by 40–45 · 8 in 10: Smith +53.2 to Smith +19.9
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Smith by 60+ | 1% |
| Smith by 55–60 | 3% |
| Smith by 50–55 | 19% |
| Smith by 45–50 | 19% |
| Smith by 40–45 | 26% |
| Smith by 35–40 | 20% |
| Smith by 30–35 | 1% |
| Smith by 20–30 | 2% |
| Smith by 0–20 | 5% |
| Reichard wins | 5% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Jason Smith (R)
More in Missouri
Ballot measures
- Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?Yes 57%
- Missouri passes ballot measure to redistrict?No 75%