VA-01 House forecast
Lean Dem2024 linesProjected flip R → D
Polls close
Taylor 64% chance
- Shannon Taylor (D)+9% past 7 days64%
- Rob Wittman (R)-10% past 7 days37%
Chance over time
- Taylor64%
- Wittman37%
Chance over time, past month: Taylor from 40% to 64%; Wittman from 61% to 37%.
| Date | Taylor | Wittman |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 40% | 61% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 38% | 63% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 52% | 49% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 55% | 47% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 64% | 37% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Taylor wins, Democrats win the House in 95 of 100. Where Wittman wins, in 85 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Robert J. Wittman (R)
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.
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Ballot measures
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