VA-09 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Griffith 97% chance
- Joy Powers (D)0% past 7 days3%
- Morgan Griffith (R)0% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Powers3%
- Griffith97%
Chance over time, past month: Powers from 2% to 3%; Griffith from 96% to 97%.
| Date | Powers | Griffith |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Griffith by 30–35 · 8 in 10: Griffith +50.2 to Griffith +20.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Griffith by 55+ | 7% |
| Griffith by 50–55 | 4% |
| Griffith by 45–50 | 5% |
| Griffith by 40–45 | 9% |
| Griffith by 35–40 | 25% |
| Griffith by 30–35 | 28% |
| Griffith by 25–30 | 9% |
| Griffith by 15–25 | 10% |
| Griffith by 0–15 | 5% |
| Powers wins | <1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. H. Morgan Griffith (R)
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