VA-04 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
McClellan 97% chance
- Jennifer McClellan (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Robert Murray (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- McClellan97%
- Murray2%
Chance over time, past month: McClellan from 97% to 97%; Murray from 2% to 2%.
| Date | McClellan | Murray |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely McClellan by 45+ · 8 in 10: McClellan +22.8 to McClellan +45
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Murray wins | 4% |
| McClellan by 0–5 | <1% |
| McClellan by 5–15 | 2% |
| McClellan by 15–20 | 2% |
| McClellan by 20–25 | 3% |
| McClellan by 25–30 | 4% |
| McClellan by 30–35 | 7% |
| McClellan by 35–40 | 6% |
| McClellan by 40–45 | 30% |
| McClellan by 45+ | 42% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Jennifer L. McClellan (D)
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Ballot measures
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