VA-02 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 linesProjected flip R → D
Polls close
Luria 89% chance
- Elaine Luria (D)+2% past 7 days89%
- Jen Kiggans (R)-1% past 7 days12%
Chance over time
- Luria89%
- Kiggans12%
Chance over time, past month: Luria from 82% to 89%; Kiggans from 19% to 12%.
| Date | Luria | Kiggans |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 82% | 19% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 82% | 19% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 82% | 19% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 87% | 13% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 89% | 12% |
Projected margin
Most likely Luria by 0–3 · 8 in 10: Kiggans +1.5 to Luria +13.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Kiggans by 6+ | 4% |
| Kiggans by 3–6 | 2% |
| Kiggans by 0–3 | 7% |
| Luria by 0–3 | 25% |
| Luria by 3–6 | 20% |
| Luria by 6–9 | 15% |
| Luria by 9–12 | 14% |
| Luria by 12–15 | 6% |
| Luria by 15–18 | 1% |
| Luria by 18+ | 6% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Luria wins, Democrats win the House in 93 of 100. Where Kiggans wins, in 79 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Jennifer A. Kiggans (R)
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.
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