VA-10 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Subramanyam 97% chance
- Suhas Subramanyam (D)+1% past 7 days97%
- Dave Beckwith (R)-2% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Subramanyam97%
- Beckwith2%
Chance over time, past month: Subramanyam from 95% to 97%; Beckwith from 4% to 2%.
| Date | Subramanyam | Beckwith |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Subramanyam by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Subramanyam +12.2 to Subramanyam +28.9
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Beckwith wins | <1% |
| Subramanyam by 0–5 | 2% |
| Subramanyam by 5–10 | 1% |
| Subramanyam by 10–15 | 15% |
| Subramanyam by 15–20 | 27% |
| Subramanyam by 20–25 | 22% |
| Subramanyam by 25–30 | 29% |
| Subramanyam by 30+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D)
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Ballot measures
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