NC-02 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close
Ross 99% chance
- Deborah Ross (D)0% past 7 days99%
- Eugene Douglass (R)0% past 7 days1%
Chance over time
- Ross99%
- Douglass1%
Chance over time, past month: Ross from 95% to 99%; Douglass from 4% to 1%.
| Date | Ross | Douglass |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 94% | 3% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 99% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 99% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 99% | 1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Ross by 40–45 · 8 in 10: Ross +30.7 to Ross +54.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Douglass wins | 1% |
| Ross by 0–15 | <1% |
| Ross by 15–25 | 4% |
| Ross by 25–30 | 3% |
| Ross by 30–35 | 7% |
| Ross by 35–40 | 22% |
| Ross by 40–45 | 23% |
| Ross by 45–50 | 17% |
| Ross by 50–55 | 14% |
| Ross by 55+ | 7% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current NC-02 member was elected on different lines.