NC-05 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Foxx 87% chance
- Chuck Hubbard (D)-1% past 7 days12%
- Virginia Foxx (R)+1% past 7 days87%
Chance over time
- Hubbard12%
- Foxx87%
Chance over time, past month: Hubbard from 12% to 12%; Foxx from 87% to 87%.
| Date | Hubbard | Foxx |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 14% | 87% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 13% | 87% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 14% | 85% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 13% | 86% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 12% | 87% |
Projected margin
Most likely Foxx by 6–9 · 8 in 10: Foxx +16.2 to Hubbard +0.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Foxx by 21+ | 4% |
| Foxx by 18–21 | 3% |
| Foxx by 15–18 | 4% |
| Foxx by 12–15 | 16% |
| Foxx by 9–12 | 19% |
| Foxx by 6–9 | 22% |
| Foxx by 3–6 | 14% |
| Foxx by 0–3 | 7% |
| Hubbard by 0–3 | 6% |
| Hubbard by 3+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current NC-05 member was elected on different lines.