NC-11 House forecast
Likely Dem2026 lines
Polls close
Ager 83% chance
- Jamie Ager (D)+7% past 7 days83%
- Jennifer Balkcom (R)-9% past 7 days16%
Chance over time
- Ager83%
- Balkcom16%
Chance over time, past month: Ager from 64% to 83%; Balkcom from 37% to 16%.
| Date | Ager | Balkcom |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 62% | 37% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 62% | 37% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 72% | 28% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 76% | 25% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 83% | 16% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Ager wins, Democrats win the House in 94 of 100. Where Balkcom wins, in 81 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current NC-11 member was elected on different lines.