NC-14 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Moore 90% chance
- Lakesha Womack (D)+2% past 7 days10%
- Tim Moore (R)+1% past 7 days90%
Chance over time
- Womack10%
- Moore90%
Chance over time, past month: Womack from 14% to 10%; Moore from 88% to 90%.
| Date | Womack | Moore |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 14% | 88% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 14% | 87% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 14% | 85% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 9% | 90% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 10% | 90% |
Projected margin
Most likely Moore by 5–10 · 8 in 10: Moore +20.2 to Even
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Moore by 25+ | 3% |
| Moore by 20–25 | 7% |
| Moore by 15–20 | 19% |
| Moore by 10–15 | 17% |
| Moore by 5–10 | 27% |
| Moore by 0–5 | 18% |
| Womack by 0–5 | 3% |
| Womack by 5+ | 7% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current NC-14 member was elected on different lines.