NE-02 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 linesProjected flip R → D
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM Central, 7:00 PM Mountain
Powell 95% chance
- Denise Powell (D)+1% past 7 days95%
- Brinker Harding (R)-1% past 7 days5%
Chance over time
- Powell95%
- Harding4%
Chance over time, past month: Powell from 93% to 95%; Harding from 6% to 4%.
| Date | Powell | Harding |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 94% | 6% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 94% | 7% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 92% | 7% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 94% | 6% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely Powell by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Powell +1.5 to Powell +18.9
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Harding by 5+ | 1% |
| Harding by 0–5 | 4% |
| Powell by 0–5 | 19% |
| Powell by 5–10 | 13% |
| Powell by 10–15 | 35% |
| Powell by 15–20 | 24% |
| Powell by 20–25 | 3% |
| Powell by 25+ | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Don Bacon (R)
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.