NE Senate forecast
Likely Rep
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM Central, 7:00 PM Mountain
Ricketts 72% chance
- Independent +1% past 7 days28%
- Pete Ricketts (R)-1% past 7 days72%
Chance over time
- Independent28%
- Ricketts72%
Key moments
· No single event explains this move
No clear trigger found
No candidate exit, court ruling, scandal or widely reported poll in the Nebraska Senate race was found in established reporting for these days.
Chance over time, past month: Independent from 33% to 28%; Ricketts from 69% to 72%.
| Date | Independent | Ricketts |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 33% | 68% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 31% | 70% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 28% | 72% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 28% | 73% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 28% | 72% |
Projected margin
Most likely Ricketts by 0–3 · 8 in 10: Ricketts +10.8 to Independent +3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ricketts by 21+ | 1% |
| Ricketts by 18–21 | 3% |
| Ricketts by 15–18 | 2% |
| Ricketts by 12–15 | 1% |
| Ricketts by 9–12 | 8% |
| Ricketts by 6–9 | 18% |
| Ricketts by 3–6 | 21% |
| Ricketts by 0–3 | 23% |
| Independent by 0–3 | 11% |
| Independent by 3+ | 13% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 2 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where the Independent wins, Democrats win the Senate in 80 of 100. Where Ricketts wins, in 58 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Republicans.