NE-03 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM Central, 7:00 PM Mountain
Smith 97% chance
- Becky Stille (D)0% past 7 days2%
- Adrian Smith (R)0% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Stille2%
- Smith97%
Chance over time, past month: Stille from 2% to 2%; Smith from 97% to 97%.
| Date | Stille | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 3% | 98% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Smith by 50–55 · 8 in 10: Smith +58.6 to Smith +33.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Smith by 65+ | 2% |
| Smith by 60–65 | 2% |
| Smith by 55–60 | 22% |
| Smith by 50–55 | 22% |
| Smith by 45–50 | 22% |
| Smith by 40–45 | 7% |
| Smith by 35–40 | 12% |
| Smith by 25–35 | 7% |
| Smith by 0–25 | 4% |
| Stille wins | <1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Adrian Smith (R)