CT-02 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Courtney 97% chance
- Joe Courtney (D)-1% past 7 days97%
- George Austin (R)0% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Courtney97%
- Austin2%
Chance over time, past month: Courtney from 95% to 97%; Austin from 6% to 2%.
| Date | Courtney | Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Courtney by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Courtney +15.9 to Courtney +33.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Austin wins | <1% |
| Courtney by 0–5 | <1% |
| Courtney by 5–10 | 4% |
| Courtney by 10–15 | 3% |
| Courtney by 15–20 | 11% |
| Courtney by 20–25 | 25% |
| Courtney by 25–30 | 33% |
| Courtney by 30–35 | 19% |
| Courtney by 35+ | 3% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Joe Courtney (D)