CT Governor forecast
Safe Dem
Polls close
Lamont 97% chance
- Ned Lamont (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Ryan Fazio (R)0% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Lamont97%
- Fazio3%
Chance over time, past month: Lamont from 96% to 97%; Fazio from 3% to 3%.
| Date | Lamont | Fazio |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Lamont by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Lamont +10.2 to Lamont +30
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Fazio wins | 2% |
| Lamont by 0–5 | 4% |
| Lamont by 5–10 | 4% |
| Lamont by 10–15 | 18% |
| Lamont by 15–20 | 27% |
| Lamont by 20–25 | 26% |
| Lamont by 25–30 | 9% |
| Lamont by 30+ | 11% |