CT-01 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Bronin 96% chance
- Luke Bronin (D)0% past 7 days96%
- Amy Chai (R)-1% past 7 days4%
Chance over time
- Bronin96%
- Chai4%
Chance over time, past month: Bronin from 96% to 96%; Chai from 4% to 4%.
| Date | Bronin | Chai |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely Bronin by 30–35 · 8 in 10: Bronin +30.4 to Bronin +43.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Chai wins | <1% |
| Bronin by 0–10 | <1% |
| Bronin by 10–20 | <1% |
| Bronin by 20–25 | 1% |
| Bronin by 25–30 | 6% |
| Bronin by 30–35 | 36% |
| Bronin by 35–40 | 33% |
| Bronin by 40–45 | 18% |
| Bronin by 45–50 | 2% |
| Bronin by 50+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. John B. Larson (D)