TX-29 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Garcia 97% chance
- Sylvia Garcia (D)-1% past 7 days97%
- Martha Fierro (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Garcia98%
- Fierro2%
Chance over time, past month: Garcia from 94% to 98%; Fierro from 6% to 2%.
| Date | Garcia | Fierro |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 94% | 6% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Garcia by 50–55 · 8 in 10: Garcia +34.5 to Garcia +58.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Fierro wins | <1% |
| Garcia by 0–20 | 3% |
| Garcia by 20–30 | 3% |
| Garcia by 30–35 | 4% |
| Garcia by 35–40 | 19% |
| Garcia by 40–45 | 19% |
| Garcia by 45–50 | 15% |
| Garcia by 50–55 | 24% |
| Garcia by 55–60 | 4% |
| Garcia by 60+ | 9% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-29 member was elected on different lines.