TX-34 House forecast
Likely Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Gonzalez 84% chance
- Vicente Gonzalez (D)0% past 7 days84%
- Eric Flores (R)-1% past 7 days16%
Chance over time
- Gonzalez84%
- Flores16%
Chance over time, past month: Gonzalez from 77% to 84%; Flores from 25% to 16%.
| Date | Gonzalez | Flores |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 79% | 22% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 84% | 14% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 83% | 18% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 84% | 17% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 84% | 16% |
Projected margin
Most likely Gonzalez by 9–12 · 8 in 10: Flores +4.3 to Gonzalez +12
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Flores by 12+ | 4% |
| Flores by 9–12 | 1% |
| Flores by 6–9 | 4% |
| Flores by 3–6 | 2% |
| Flores by 0–3 | 7% |
| Gonzalez by 0–3 | 12% |
| Gonzalez by 3–6 | 5% |
| Gonzalez by 6–9 | 12% |
| Gonzalez by 9–12 | 28% |
| Gonzalez by 12+ | 25% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Gonzalez wins, Democrats win the House in 94 of 100. Where Flores wins, in 81 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-34 member was elected on different lines.