TX-01 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Moran 96% chance
- Yolanda Prince (D)0% past 7 days2%
- Nathaniel Moran (R)-1% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Prince2%
- Moran96%
Chance over time, past month: Prince from 2% to 2%; Moran from 96% to 96%.
| Date | Prince | Moran |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 3% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Moran by 35–40 · 8 in 10: Moran +60 to Moran +31.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Moran by 60+ | 15% |
| Moran by 55–60 | 5% |
| Moran by 50–55 | 5% |
| Moran by 45–50 | 15% |
| Moran by 40–45 | 10% |
| Moran by 35–40 | 29% |
| Moran by 30–35 | 15% |
| Moran by 20–30 | 5% |
| Moran by 0–20 | 1% |
| Prince wins | <1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-01 member was elected on different lines.