TX-05 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Gooden 97% chance
- Chelsey Hockett (D)-1% past 7 days2%
- Lance Gooden (R)0% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Hockett2%
- Gooden97%
Chance over time, past month: Hockett from 7% to 2%; Gooden from 94% to 97%.
| Date | Hockett | Gooden |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 1% | 97% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Gooden by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Gooden +27.2 to Gooden +3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Gooden by 30+ | 7% |
| Gooden by 25–30 | 5% |
| Gooden by 20–25 | 7% |
| Gooden by 15–20 | 24% |
| Gooden by 10–15 | 19% |
| Gooden by 5–10 | 22% |
| Gooden by 0–5 | 14% |
| Hockett wins | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-05 member was elected on different lines.