TX-36 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Babin 95% chance
- Rhonda Hart (D)+1% past 7 days5%
- Brian Babin (R)0% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Hart5%
- Babin95%
Chance over time, past month: Hart from 6% to 5%; Babin from 93% to 95%.
| Date | Hart | Babin |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 93% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 7% | 93% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 6% | 93% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Babin by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Babin +27.8 to Babin +5.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Babin by 30+ | 5% |
| Babin by 25–30 | 12% |
| Babin by 20–25 | 20% |
| Babin by 15–20 | 23% |
| Babin by 10–15 | 20% |
| Babin by 5–10 | 11% |
| Babin by 0–5 | 4% |
| Hart wins | 5% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-36 member was elected on different lines.