TX-26 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Gill 97% chance
- Steven Shook (D)0% past 7 days3%
- Brandon Gill (R)+2% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Shook3%
- Gill97%
Chance over time, past month: Shook from 2% to 3%; Gill from 98% to 97%.
| Date | Shook | Gill |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 2% | 98% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Gill by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Gill +29.5 to Gill +9.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Gill by 30+ | 10% |
| Gill by 25–30 | 4% |
| Gill by 20–25 | 17% |
| Gill by 15–20 | 28% |
| Gill by 10–15 | 30% |
| Gill by 5–10 | 5% |
| Gill by 0–5 | 5% |
| Shook wins | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-26 member was elected on different lines.