TX Senate forecast
Lean DemProjected flip R → D
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time: 8:00 PM ET in most of Texas, 9:00 PM ET in the El Paso area
Talarico 65% chance
- James Talarico (D)+2% past 7 days65%
- Ken Paxton (R)-2% past 7 days36%
Chance over time
- Talarico65%
- Paxton36%
Key moments
· Around this time · lead changed
Fox News poll shows Talarico narrowly ahead
A Fox News survey of Texas registered voters taken July 23-26 found Democrat James Talarico at 51% and Republican Ken Paxton at 48%, within the margin of error.
Chance over time, past month: Talarico from 61% to 65%; Paxton from 41% to 36%.
| Date | Talarico | Paxton |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 62% | 40% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 62% | 40% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 66% | 36% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 64% | 38% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 65% | 37% |
Projected margin
Most likely Talarico by 0–3 · 8 in 10: Paxton +3.8 to Talarico +5.9
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Paxton by 12+ | <1% |
| Paxton by 9–12 | 2% |
| Paxton by 6–9 | 2% |
| Paxton by 3–6 | 8% |
| Paxton by 0–3 | 28% |
| Talarico by 0–3 | 33% |
| Talarico by 3–6 | 17% |
| Talarico by 6–9 | 7% |
| Talarico by 9–12 | 2% |
| Talarico by 12+ | 1% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 9 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Talarico wins, Democrats win the Senate in 78 of 100. Where Paxton wins, in 40 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Republicans.
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.