TX-23 House forecast
Lean Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time: 8:00 PM ET in most of Texas, 9:00 PM ET in the El Paso area
Herrera 70% chance
- Katy Padilla Stout (D)-3% past 7 days31%
- Brandon Herrera (R)+3% past 7 days70%
Chance over time
- Stout31%
- Herrera70%
Chance over time, past month: Stout from 35% to 31%; Herrera from 65% to 70%.
| Date | Stout | Herrera |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 36% | 64% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 39% | 62% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 39% | 63% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 34% | 67% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 31% | 70% |
Projected margin
Most likely Herrera by 0–3 · 8 in 10: Herrera +12 to Stout +7.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Herrera by 12+ | 12% |
| Herrera by 9–12 | 10% |
| Herrera by 6–9 | 10% |
| Herrera by 3–6 | 15% |
| Herrera by 0–3 | 19% |
| Stout by 0–3 | 14% |
| Stout by 3–6 | 8% |
| Stout by 6–9 | 5% |
| Stout by 9–12 | 3% |
| Stout by 12+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
In simulated elections where Stout wins, Democrats win the House in 97 of 100. Where Herrera wins, in 89 of 100.
Context
- Vacant seat.