Texas 2026 midterms
Updated
Polls close · Tuesday, Nov 3
Statewide at 7:00 PM local time: 8:00 PM ET in most of Texas, 9:00 PM ET in the El Paso area
13 days away. Results appear on this page as each race is decided.
Statewide races
2 racesSenateHeld by RepublicansProjected flip R → DLean Dem65%James Talarico (D)36%Ken Paxton (R)Talarico +2% past 7 daysFull forecast GovernorHeld by RepublicansLikely Rep27%Gina Hinojosa (D)73%Greg Abbott (R)Abbott -6% past 7 daysFull forecast
Probabilities from public sources, collected by Helm's data infrastructure
House delegation
38 seats- Held today
- D 13 · R 24
- 1 vacant
- Expected seats
- D 12.6 · R 25.4
- Each district’s chance, added up
- Safe D 10
- Likely D 1
- Lean D 1
- Lean R 1
- Likely R 1
- Safe R 24
Texas votes on new district lines for 2026: no seat has a like-for-like incumbent, so no flips are marked.
- District 01Moran 96% chanceSafe R
- District 02Toth 93% chanceSafe R
- District 03Self 95% chanceSafe R
- District 04Fallon 96% chanceSafe R
- District 05Gooden 97% chanceSafe R
- District 06Ellzey >99% chanceSafe R
- District 07Fletcher 97% chanceSafe D
- District 08Steinmann 95% chanceSafe R
- District 09Mealer 84% chanceLikely R
- District 10Gober 91% chanceSafe R
- District 11Pfluger 97% chanceSafe R
- District 12Goldman 95% chanceSafe R
- District 13Jackson 97% chanceSafe R
- District 14Weber 96% chanceSafe R
- District 15Pulido 87% chanceSafe D
- District 16Escobar 97% chanceSafe D
- District 17Sessions 97% chanceSafe R
- District 18Menefee 98% chanceSafe D
- District 19Sell 97% chanceSafe R
- District 20Castro 97% chanceSafe D
- District 21Teixeira 95% chanceSafe R
- District 22Nehls 95% chanceSafe R
- District 23Herrera 70% chanceLean R
- District 24Van Duyne 91% chanceSafe R
- District 25Williams 96% chanceSafe R
- District 26Gill 97% chanceSafe R
- District 27Cloud 95% chanceSafe R
- District 28Cuellar 92% chanceSafe D
- District 29Garcia 97% chanceSafe D
- District 30Haynes 97% chanceSafe D
- District 31Carter 95% chanceSafe R
- District 32Yarbrough 86% chanceSafe R
- District 33Allred 97% chanceSafe D
- District 34Gonzalez 84% chanceLikely D
- District 35Garcia 62% chanceLean D
- District 36Babin 95% chanceSafe R
- District 37Casar 98% chanceSafe D
- District 38Bonck 97% chanceSafe R
Ballot measures
1 measureLeague City measure approving the police use of Flock Cameras
On the ballot in League City only
66% chance yes
Probabilities from public sources, collected by Helm's data infrastructure
News and signals in Texas
Each item links to its source.