TX-35 House forecast
Lean Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Garcia 62% chance
- Johnny Garcia (D)+3% past 7 days62%
- Carlos De La Cruz (R)-4% past 7 days37%
Chance over time
- Garcia62%
- De La Cruz37%
Chance over time, past month: Garcia from 65% to 62%; De La Cruz from 35% to 37%.
| Date | Garcia | De La Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 71% | 38% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 67% | 33% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 61% | 41% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 59% | 41% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 62% | 39% |
Projected margin
Most likely Garcia by 3–6 · 8 in 10: De La Cruz +8.3 to Garcia +12
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| De La Cruz by 12+ | 2% |
| De La Cruz by 9–12 | 7% |
| De La Cruz by 6–9 | 4% |
| De La Cruz by 3–6 | 13% |
| De La Cruz by 0–3 | 10% |
| Garcia by 0–3 | 15% |
| Garcia by 3–6 | 18% |
| Garcia by 6–9 | 13% |
| Garcia by 9–12 | 3% |
| Garcia by 12+ | 14% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Garcia wins, Democrats win the House in 95 of 100. Where De La Cruz wins, in 85 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-35 member was elected on different lines.