TX-17 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Sessions 97% chance
- Casey Shepard (D)-1% past 7 days4%
- Pete Sessions (R)+1% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Shepard4%
- Sessions97%
Chance over time, past month: Shepard from 4% to 4%; Sessions from 94% to 97%.
| Date | Shepard | Sessions |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Sessions by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Sessions +23.2 to Sessions +5.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sessions by 30+ | 3% |
| Sessions by 25–30 | 3% |
| Sessions by 20–25 | 11% |
| Sessions by 15–20 | 26% |
| Sessions by 10–15 | 32% |
| Sessions by 5–10 | 18% |
| Sessions by 0–5 | 6% |
| Shepard wins | 2% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-17 member was elected on different lines.