TX-28 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Cuellar 92% chance
- Henry Cuellar (D)+2% past 7 days92%
- Tano Tijerina (R)-3% past 7 days8%
Chance over time
- Cuellar92%
- Tijerina8%
Chance over time, past month: Cuellar from 86% to 92%; Tijerina from 14% to 8%.
| Date | Cuellar | Tijerina |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 86% | 14% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 89% | 11% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 89% | 11% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 88% | 13% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 92% | 8% |
Projected margin
Most likely Cuellar by 6–9 · 8 in 10: Cuellar +1.4 to Cuellar +21
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Tijerina by 3+ | 2% |
| Tijerina by 0–3 | 5% |
| Cuellar by 0–3 | 7% |
| Cuellar by 3–6 | 11% |
| Cuellar by 6–9 | 18% |
| Cuellar by 9–12 | 13% |
| Cuellar by 12–15 | 11% |
| Cuellar by 15–18 | 13% |
| Cuellar by 18–21 | 10% |
| Cuellar by 21+ | 10% |
Helm simulation
In simulated elections where Cuellar wins, Democrats win the House in 93 of 100. Where Tijerina wins, in 77 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-28 member was elected on different lines.