TX-25 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Williams 96% chance
- Dione Sims (D)+1% past 7 days2%
- Roger Williams (R)+1% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Sims2%
- Williams96%
Chance over time, past month: Sims from 4% to 2%; Williams from 96% to 96%.
| Date | Sims | Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Williams by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Williams +24.2 to Williams +10.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Williams by 30+ | 3% |
| Williams by 25–30 | 2% |
| Williams by 20–25 | 31% |
| Williams by 15–20 | 29% |
| Williams by 10–15 | 26% |
| Williams by 5–10 | 2% |
| Williams by 0–5 | 3% |
| Sims wins | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-25 member was elected on different lines.