SC-04 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Timmons 96% chance
- Courtney McClain (D)+2% past 7 days4%
- William Timmons (R)0% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- McClain4%
- Timmons96%
Chance over time, past month: McClain from 7% to 4%; Timmons from 93% to 96%.
| Date | McClain | Timmons |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Timmons by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Timmons +24.5 to Timmons +4.9
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Timmons by 30+ | 4% |
| Timmons by 25–30 | 4% |
| Timmons by 20–25 | 13% |
| Timmons by 15–20 | 30% |
| Timmons by 10–15 | 28% |
| Timmons by 5–10 | 10% |
| Timmons by 0–5 | 4% |
| McClain wins | 6% |