UT-01 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; vote centers are open too
McAdams 96% chance
- Ben McAdams (D)-1% past 7 days96%
- Riley Owen (R)0% past 7 days4%
Chance over time
- McAdams96%
- Owen4%
Chance over time, past month: McAdams from 95% to 96%; Owen from 4% to 4%.
| Date | McAdams | Owen |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 4% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 4% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely McAdams by 25–30 · 8 in 10: McAdams +4.2 to McAdams +40
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Owen wins | 3% |
| McAdams by 0–10 | 16% |
| McAdams by 10–15 | 6% |
| McAdams by 15–20 | 1% |
| McAdams by 20–25 | 15% |
| McAdams by 25–30 | 18% |
| McAdams by 30–35 | 14% |
| McAdams by 35–40 | 16% |
| McAdams by 40+ | 11% |