UT-02 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; vote centers are open too
Moore 93% chance
- Peter Crosby (D)+2% past 7 days6%
- Blake Moore (R)-2% past 7 days93%
Chance over time
- Crosby6%
- Moore93%
Chance over time, past month: Crosby from 5% to 6%; Moore from 95% to 93%.
| Date | Crosby | Moore |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 1% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 5% | 94% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 94% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 6% | 93% |
Projected margin
Most likely Moore by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Moore +34.7 to Moore +3.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Moore by 45+ | 2% |
| Moore by 40–45 | 3% |
| Moore by 35–40 | 5% |
| Moore by 30–35 | 6% |
| Moore by 25–30 | 14% |
| Moore by 20–25 | 23% |
| Moore by 15–20 | 23% |
| Moore by 5–15 | 13% |
| Moore by 0–5 | 11% |
| Crosby wins | 2% |