PA-11 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Smucker 96% chance
- Nancy Mannion (D)0% past 7 days4%
- Lloyd Smucker (R)+1% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Mannion4%
- Smucker96%
Chance over time, past month: Mannion from 3% to 4%; Smucker from 98% to 96%.
| Date | Mannion | Smucker |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 8% | 93% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Smucker by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Smucker +23.6 to Smucker +5.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Smucker by 35+ | 3% |
| Smucker by 30–35 | 2% |
| Smucker by 25–30 | 3% |
| Smucker by 20–25 | 5% |
| Smucker by 15–20 | 30% |
| Smucker by 10–15 | 25% |
| Smucker by 5–10 | 22% |
| Smucker by 0–5 | 5% |
| Mannion wins | 4% |