PA-12 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Lee 98% chance
- Summer Lee (D)0% past 7 days98%
- James Hayes (R)0% past 7 days1%
Chance over time
- Lee98%
- Hayes1%
Chance over time, past month: Lee from 97% to 98%; Hayes from 3% to 1%.
| Date | Lee | Hayes |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Lee by 30–35 · 8 in 10: Lee +17.1 to Lee +36.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hayes wins | <1% |
| Lee by 0–10 | <1% |
| Lee by 10–15 | 4% |
| Lee by 15–20 | 13% |
| Lee by 20–25 | 13% |
| Lee by 25–30 | 25% |
| Lee by 30–35 | 32% |
| Lee by 35–40 | 9% |
| Lee by 40+ | 3% |