PA-05 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Scanlon 98% chance
- Mary Gay Scanlon (D)0% past 7 days98%
- Nicholas Manganaro (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Scanlon98%
- Manganaro2%
Chance over time, past month: Scanlon from 99% to 98%; Manganaro from 1% to 2%.
| Date | Scanlon | Manganaro |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 99% | 1% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 99% | <1% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Scanlon by 40–45 · 8 in 10: Scanlon +28.4 to Scanlon +48.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Manganaro wins | <1% |
| Scanlon by 0–10 | 1% |
| Scanlon by 10–20 | 2% |
| Scanlon by 20–25 | 4% |
| Scanlon by 25–30 | 5% |
| Scanlon by 30–35 | 23% |
| Scanlon by 35–40 | 21% |
| Scanlon by 40–45 | 25% |
| Scanlon by 45–50 | 14% |
| Scanlon by 50+ | 5% |