PA-06 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Houlahan 97% chance
- Chrissy Houlahan (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Marty Young (R)0% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Houlahan98%
- Young2%
Chance over time, past month: Houlahan from 97% to 98%; Young from 2% to 2%.
| Date | Houlahan | Young |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Houlahan by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Houlahan +15.1 to Houlahan +31.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Young wins | <1% |
| Houlahan by 0–5 | 3% |
| Houlahan by 5–10 | 3% |
| Houlahan by 10–15 | 3% |
| Houlahan by 15–20 | 24% |
| Houlahan by 20–25 | 32% |
| Houlahan by 25–30 | 23% |
| Houlahan by 30–35 | 6% |
| Houlahan by 35+ | 5% |