PA-07 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 linesProjected flip R → D
Polls close
Brooks 87% chance
- Bob Brooks (D)+1% past 7 days87%
- Ryan Mackenzie (R)0% past 7 days14%
Chance over time
- Brooks87%
- Mackenzie14%
Chance over time, past month: Brooks from 80% to 87%; Mackenzie from 21% to 14%.
| Date | Brooks | Mackenzie |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 80% | 21% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 82% | 16% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 85% | 14% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 86% | 14% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 87% | 14% |
Projected margin
Most likely Brooks by 3–6 · 8 in 10: Mackenzie +2.2 to Brooks +16.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mackenzie by 6+ | 4% |
| Mackenzie by 3–6 | 4% |
| Mackenzie by 0–3 | 9% |
| Brooks by 0–3 | 11% |
| Brooks by 3–6 | 27% |
| Brooks by 6–9 | 17% |
| Brooks by 9–12 | 5% |
| Brooks by 12–15 | 4% |
| Brooks by 15–18 | 15% |
| Brooks by 18+ | 3% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Brooks wins, Democrats win the House in 93 of 100. Where Mackenzie wins, in 79 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R)
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.