PA-16 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Kelly 94% chance
- Justin Wagner (D)0% past 7 days5%
- Mike Kelly (R)0% past 7 days94%
Chance over time
- Wagner5%
- Kelly94%
Chance over time, past month: Wagner from 7% to 5%; Kelly from 91% to 94%.
| Date | Wagner | Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 7% | 92% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 7% | 92% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 94% |
Projected margin
Most likely Kelly by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Kelly +26 to Kelly +5.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Kelly by 35+ | 3% |
| Kelly by 30–35 | 1% |
| Kelly by 25–30 | 7% |
| Kelly by 20–25 | 12% |
| Kelly by 15–20 | 21% |
| Kelly by 10–15 | 27% |
| Kelly by 5–10 | 20% |
| Kelly by 0–5 | 4% |
| Wagner wins | 4% |