PA-15 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Thompson 95% chance
- Ray Bilger (D)+1% past 7 days5%
- Glenn Thompson (R)-1% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Bilger5%
- Thompson95%
Chance over time, past month: Bilger from 5% to 5%; Thompson from 96% to 95%.
| Date | Bilger | Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Thompson by 30–35 · 8 in 10: Thompson +43 to Thompson +21.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Thompson by 50+ | 3% |
| Thompson by 45–50 | 3% |
| Thompson by 40–45 | 10% |
| Thompson by 35–40 | 21% |
| Thompson by 30–35 | 27% |
| Thompson by 25–30 | 23% |
| Thompson by 20–25 | 4% |
| Thompson by 10–20 | 4% |
| Thompson by 0–10 | 4% |
| Bilger wins | <1% |