PA-09 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Meuser 95% chance
- Rachel Wallace (D)+1% past 7 days5%
- Dan Meuser (R)+1% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Wallace5%
- Meuser95%
Chance over time, past month: Wallace from 3% to 5%; Meuser from 97% to 95%.
| Date | Wallace | Meuser |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 3% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Meuser by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Meuser +38.9 to Meuser +14.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Meuser by 50+ | 4% |
| Meuser by 45–50 | 2% |
| Meuser by 40–45 | 3% |
| Meuser by 35–40 | 4% |
| Meuser by 30–35 | 17% |
| Meuser by 25–30 | 35% |
| Meuser by 20–25 | 21% |
| Meuser by 10–20 | 5% |
| Meuser by 0–10 | 7% |
| Wallace wins | 1% |