MD-02 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Olszewski 96% chance
- Johnny Olszewski (D)+1% past 7 days96%
- Dave Wallace (R)+1% past 7 days4%
Chance over time
- Olszewski96%
- Wallace4%
Chance over time, past month: Olszewski from 96% to 96%; Wallace from 5% to 4%.
| Date | Olszewski | Wallace |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely Olszewski by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Olszewski +15.6 to Olszewski +37.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Wallace wins | <1% |
| Olszewski by 0–10 | 4% |
| Olszewski by 10–15 | 6% |
| Olszewski by 15–20 | 3% |
| Olszewski by 20–25 | 12% |
| Olszewski by 25–30 | 31% |
| Olszewski by 30–35 | 25% |
| Olszewski by 35–40 | 15% |
| Olszewski by 40+ | 3% |