MD-03 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Elfreth 97% chance
- Sarah Elfreth (D)+1% past 7 days97%
- Berney Flowers (R)0% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Elfreth97%
- Flowers3%
Chance over time, past month: Elfreth from 96% to 97%; Flowers from 5% to 3%.
| Date | Elfreth | Flowers |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 6% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Elfreth by 35–40 · 8 in 10: Elfreth +25.9 to Elfreth +42.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Flowers wins | <1% |
| Elfreth by 0–5 | <1% |
| Elfreth by 5–15 | <1% |
| Elfreth by 15–20 | <1% |
| Elfreth by 20–25 | 4% |
| Elfreth by 25–30 | 25% |
| Elfreth by 30–35 | 13% |
| Elfreth by 35–40 | 41% |
| Elfreth by 40–45 | 13% |
| Elfreth by 45+ | 3% |