IL-06 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Casten 96% chance
- Sean Casten (D)0% past 7 days96%
- Niki Conforti (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Casten96%
- Conforti3%
Chance over time, past month: Casten from 96% to 96%; Conforti from 3% to 3%.
| Date | Casten | Conforti |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Casten by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Casten +12.3 to Casten +28.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Conforti wins | <1% |
| Casten by 0–5 | <1% |
| Casten by 5–10 | 2% |
| Casten by 10–15 | 16% |
| Casten by 15–20 | 26% |
| Casten by 20–25 | 36% |
| Casten by 25–30 | 14% |
| Casten by 30–35 | 5% |
| Casten by 35+ | <1% |