IL-17 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Sorensen 97% chance
- Eric Sorensen (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Dillan Vancil (R)+1% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Sorensen97%
- Vancil3%
Chance over time, past month: Sorensen from 94% to 97%; Vancil from 6% to 3%.
| Date | Sorensen | Vancil |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 94% | 6% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Sorensen by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Sorensen +6.6 to Sorensen +28.9
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Vancil wins | 3% |
| Sorensen by 0–5 | 4% |
| Sorensen by 5–10 | 9% |
| Sorensen by 10–15 | 7% |
| Sorensen by 15–20 | 23% |
| Sorensen by 20–25 | 27% |
| Sorensen by 25–30 | 22% |
| Sorensen by 30+ | 5% |