IL-16 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
LaHood 95% chance
- Paul Nolley (D)+1% past 7 days4%
- Darin LaHood (R)-1% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Nolley4%
- LaHood95%
Chance over time, past month: Nolley from 7% to 4%; LaHood from 94% to 95%.
| Date | Nolley | LaHood |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 1% | 97% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely LaHood by 15–20 · 8 in 10: LaHood +24.7 to LaHood +7.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| LaHood by 30+ | 5% |
| LaHood by 25–30 | 3% |
| LaHood by 20–25 | 24% |
| LaHood by 15–20 | 29% |
| LaHood by 10–15 | 21% |
| LaHood by 5–10 | 16% |
| LaHood by 0–5 | 1% |
| Nolley wins | <1% |