IL Governor forecast
Safe Dem
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Pritzker 96% chance
- JB Pritzker (D)-1% past 7 days96%
- Darren Bailey (R)+1% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Pritzker96%
- Bailey3%
Chance over time, past month: Pritzker from 97% to 96%; Bailey from 2% to 3%.
| Date | Pritzker | Bailey |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely Pritzker by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Pritzker +12 to Pritzker +30
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bailey wins | 1% |
| Pritzker by 0–5 | 3% |
| Pritzker by 5–10 | 5% |
| Pritzker by 10–15 | 5% |
| Pritzker by 15–20 | 27% |
| Pritzker by 20–25 | 33% |
| Pritzker by 25–30 | 8% |
| Pritzker by 30+ | 19% |
Helm simulation
Counts toward the simulated number of governorships. There is no published control question for governors.
Context
- Governorship held by Democrats.