IL-14 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Underwood 96% chance
- Lauren Underwood (D)0% past 7 days96%
- James Marter (R)0% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Underwood96%
- Marter3%
Chance over time, past month: Underwood from 95% to 96%; Marter from 5% to 3%.
| Date | Underwood | Marter |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 94% | 5% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Underwood by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Underwood +13 to Underwood +34.6
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Marter wins | <1% |
| Underwood by 0–5 | <1% |
| Underwood by 5–10 | 3% |
| Underwood by 10–15 | 11% |
| Underwood by 15–20 | 17% |
| Underwood by 20–25 | 24% |
| Underwood by 25–30 | 25% |
| Underwood by 30–35 | 9% |
| Underwood by 35+ | 9% |