IL Senate forecast
Safe Dem
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Stratton 99% chance
- Juliana Stratton (D)0% past 7 days99%
- Don Tracy (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Stratton99%
- Tracy2%
Chance over time, past month: Stratton from 96% to 99%; Tracy from 4% to 2%.
| Date | Stratton | Tracy |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 98% | 3% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 99% | 1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Stratton by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Stratton +8.4 to Stratton +34.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Tracy wins | 1% |
| Stratton by 0–5 | 2% |
| Stratton by 5–10 | 10% |
| Stratton by 10–15 | 6% |
| Stratton by 15–20 | 14% |
| Stratton by 20–25 | 27% |
| Stratton by 25–30 | 17% |
| Stratton by 30–35 | 14% |
| Stratton by 35+ | 9% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Stratton wins, Democrats win the Senate in 65 of 100. Where Tracy wins, in 15 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Democrats.