IL-05 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Quigley 95% chance
- Mike Quigley (D)-2% past 7 days95%
- Tommy Hanson (R)+2% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Quigley95%
- Hanson3%
Chance over time, past month: Quigley from 95% to 95%; Hanson from 5% to 3%.
| Date | Quigley | Hanson |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 95% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Quigley by 50–55 · 8 in 10: Quigley +38 to Quigley +54.9
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hanson wins | <1% |
| Quigley by 0–20 | <1% |
| Quigley by 20–30 | 2% |
| Quigley by 30–35 | 2% |
| Quigley by 35–40 | 9% |
| Quigley by 40–45 | 16% |
| Quigley by 45–50 | 26% |
| Quigley by 50–55 | 35% |
| Quigley by 55–60 | 8% |
| Quigley by 60+ | 1% |