NV Governor forecast
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time: 10:00 PM ET in most of Nevada, 9:00 PM ET in Mountain-time West Wendover
Ford 60% chance
- Aaron Ford (D)+6% past 7 days60%
- Joe Lombardo (R)-6% past 7 days40%
Chance over time
- Ford60%
- Lombardo40%
Key moments
· Around this time · lead changed
Trump endorsed Gov. Joe Lombardo for reelection
President Trump endorsed Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo's 2026 reelection bid on Nov. 6, two days after the off-year elections.
KOLO: Trump endorses Lombardo for 2026 race (opens in a new tab) · Reno Gazette Journal: President Trump endorses Lombardo in Nevada governor's race (opens in a new tab)
· No single event explains this move · lead changed
No clear trigger found
No debate, major endorsement, candidate controversy or widely reported poll in the Nevada governor's race was found for these days.
Chance over time, past month: Ford from 46% to 60%; Lombardo from 56% to 40%. Press [ or ] to go to the key moment marked on the line.
| Date | Ford | Lombardo |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 49% | 53% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 48% | 52% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 56% | 45% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 55% | 46% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 60% | 40% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Counts toward the simulated number of governorships. There is no published control question for governors.
Context
- Governorship held by Republicans.
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.
More in Nevada
Ballot measures
- Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?Yes 99%